Friday, January 30, 2009

Today's trade - 300109

I placed a sell order trade for GBP/USD but made a loss of 40pips. GBP still going strong against USD, even though other major pairs already plummetted against USD. Ermm probably will have to wait next week for this pair to go down. Next week, BOE is expected to cut rate by 50bps. It still baffles me why this pair still hold strong even though other pairs have dropped.

This is 4hr chart. Looks like cable has already break the downtrend. Dont know how long will it gonna last and where it gonna go (possibly to the 61.8 fibo level@1.4644 as it has just penetrated the 50.o fibo level between the top 9/1/09 to bottom 23/1/09). Still risky..


Currency Market, Sentiment On The Verge Of Another Plunge As Growth And Rates Deteriorate

Just read this from, seems that currency strategists thinks that there are more room to go to the south for major pairs against USD:

Investor sentiment is on the verge of another collapse just as efforts to stabilize economic growth and financial markets have been ramped up. Can global policy officials revive investor and lender confidence before the cumulative pessimism behind underlying fundamental trends picks a direction for the us? We won’t likely have to wait long for an answer. Taking measure of sentiment through yield appetite, we have seen carry trade interest struggle to balance the weak potential for returns with the growing outlook for risk. This past week, the DailyFX Carry Trade Index held back from developing formal follow through with a third dip below 20,000. Nonetheless, the pressure is clear as the composite holds just above a six-year low. This weight was more or less mirrored in the market’s other, favored risk-sensitive assets. The S&P 500 was pressuring support around 800, the EURUSD was eyeing 1.2750 and the ten-year T-note was threatening to drop below 122 (an interesting mix that itself reflects an unusual environment). On the other hand, where price gauges have stumbled, market condition indicators have actually improved (this is among the resistance holding back the currencies from falling against USD). The DailyFX Volatility Index has retraced to 19.3 percent and risk reversals have shown an uptick in optimism among options traders - though, both are still near recent record lows.

When looking at the fundamental clash underlying market sentiment, we are left with little reason to doubt the potential for another wave of pessimism. Over the past few weeks, investors have been given more than enough reason to second guess optimism. The primary concern for investors, consumers, businesses and politicians is the health of the global economy. The IMF has forecasted a 0.5 percent pace of expansion through 2009 – a technical recession for an economy of this scale and put into context, the worst pace of activity since World War II. This forecast may even be somewhat optimistic compared to what speculators are preparing for after the fourth quarter GDP numbers were folded into the mix. The world’s largest economy reported a substantial 3.8 percent annualized slump through year’s end, while activity in the UK slowed 1.8 percent over the same period – the worst contraction in over a quarter of a century for both. At this point, though, the absolute level of these lagging indicators isn’t nearly as important as the pace they have established. As the engine of the decline moves from housing to business activity on to consumer spending, the momentum behind the recession is being amplified. How overwhelming will this trend be? This is a critical question now as US President Barack Obama is pushing through an $800 billion-plus stimulus plan and other policy authorities move towards nationalizing their financial sectors. What is clear though is that sparking optimism after tremendous loses and with such anemic returns will be an extremely difficult task.


Friday, January 23, 2009

Today's trade - 230109

Today's trade was profitable. I managed to bank-in 79pips. Today's result provide a morale boost for me after yesterday's slaughter. Now, I will protect my capital first and dont rush into trades. Forex is very challenging. Only 10% made money out of it. And I want to be one of the 10%. So discipline is the key. Besides TAYOR, I also always remember this saying "Trading forex is not how much you made money but how long you stay in the game!" by sifu Sham from Forex Factory. I think I learned a lot from the forum he'd created. For those of you interested in forex, it is one of the best place to start learning forex.

Ok here's my trading result:


Thursday, January 22, 2009

What a bad day today...

Today's tradings sucks..Enough said, just look at the details:

Later, I managed to get back +16pips from the market. Need to be more disciplined!

My Money Management Oath:
1) Protect Capital
2) Plan my trades - stop if already 2 losses for the day (max -80pips)
3) Wait for the best trading setup + R&R ratio
4) Don't rush into trades

People! These are only a reminder for me. Don't follow blindly! Everyone has different MM and trading style. So:

"Trade At Your Own Risk"


Wednesday, January 21, 2009

My First Trades

Officially these 2 trades are the first ones being recorded in this blog which I treated as my trading journal. For tonight it was a mixed bag. Aku trade pair EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Here's the result:

Sell EUR/USD (+52pips)
Reason enter trade: Aku place sell order kat Daily Pivot Point(DPP) @1.2952 and was successful as price immediately bounce once it touch the DPP and formed bearish doji star.

Sell GBP/USD (-49pips)
Reason for trade: Price rebounded to the upside and testing the 23.6 Fibo level of daily hi to lo when the general trend was bearish. If fail to penetrate the line, I'll profit from price rejection tp price sadly shot up terus sampai 38.2 Fibo level.

So tonight's total is just +3pips. Huhuhu..kena berusaha lebih gigih lg camni. Yakin boleh.!!

p/s: If I don't understand the price movement than I'll step aside. Enough for today...Esok masih ada. Luar biasa!!


Tuesday, January 20, 2009

My Preferred Pair and Time Frame

Before aku berckp psl topik ni, aku nak inform readers semua that my blog ni will not only contain journal about forex sahaja tp akan include other issues yg close dgn aku and aku rasa worth mentioning just like the previous post.

Ok back to this topik. Pairs yg aku suka utk trade is EUR/USD, followed by GBP/USD and baru2 ni aku start tgk AUD/USD. Sebenarnya kalau nak jadi trader yg berjaya, ade yg berpendapat kite harus concentrate on 1 pair sahaja sbb kite leh master satu2 pair ni..When news keluar for example, kite akan tahu macamne pair ni akan react to the news..and in terms of price movement lak, kita akan tahu sebesar mana volatility of the pair and take this into account bila kita calculate risk and reward ratio kite b4 trade.

Aku setuju dengan pendapat ni..awal2 dulu mmg aku concentrate dengan pair EUR/USD atau dipanggil Fibre . Sebabnyer aku rs pair ni kurang volatile compared dgn GBP atau JPY. Average utk Fibre (premarket crisis) hanyalah dalam 100-200pips sehari sedangkan GBP dan JPY boleh move more than that..300pips sehari. Tp sekarang ni, time financial crisis ni..EUR/USD pon da sama volatile gak..hihihi. Keduanya, aktif time utk pair ni adalah semasa Europe and US market session iaitu between 4pm-4pg waktu malaysia. So aku boleh monitor the movement semasa aku berada di rumah and tggu trade setup aku utk complete before aku akan place the order. Inilah juga salah satu sebab mengapa aku suka trade pair GBP/USD atau Cable. Tp yg kurengnye pasal pair ni ialah volatility nyer..just nk bg contoh, hari ni sahaja pair ni da gerak 500pips! and dalam masa 2 hari sahaja..900 pips!! gila kan..hehehe tp dengan R&R and setup yg bgs,aku yakin Cable leh ditawan! And last sekali AUD/USD atau dipanggil Aussie dikalangan forex traders. Pair ni aku baru shj nak berjinak2...yg buatkan aku suka dgn pair ni ialah kerana ianya bersangkutan dgn commodities price movement. Meaning to say that, kl commodities prices naik, Aussie juga akan naik and vice versa. Tp itu hanyalah teori, still nak masuk trade kenala tgk R&R kite dl.

Ok aku dah citer psl favorite pair aku..sekarang ni lak aku nak citer psl time frame plak. Aku ni can be considered as day trader. maksudnye trade yg aku place hanyalah utk hari ni shj and aku tkde intention utk biarkan trade aku utk float until next day kl target price aku tk achieve. So utk trade setup aku..aku prefer utk tgk 4hr, 1hr and 15 minit time frames. 4hr and 1hr ni selalunya adalah untk menconfirmkan general trend movement of the pair. And 15min time frame lak, aku gunakan as guide kat mn aku nak place trade aku.

Bg aku, selain drpd good trading setup..Money management (MM) juga adalah benda yg plg basic dan important dlm trading forex ni. Inilah yg akan determine selama mana kita akan terus berada dlm dunia forex ni. Apa itu MM? Utk setiap trade yg akan kite trade, kita harus tentukan sebyk mn risk yg kita akan ambil drpd total capital kire. Sbg contoh, normal praktis yg aku sll came across adalah 2% out of total capital. So kalau capital kite USD1,000, setiap trade kite willing to put maximum loss of 2% atau kalau standard lot maksudnya 20pips kalau akaun kiter USD2, 40pips maksudnya kl capital besar,maka lg besarla MM nya. K la, rasanye ckpla dl smpi sini..pjg da aku taip..nnt ade yg boring lak baca, n ade gak yg tk phm..hahaha..malu bertny sesat jalan..;)

Last sekali, aku selalu igt pesan ni and sesape yg nak jd forex trader pon kena igt pesan ni:

"Trade with the money that you're willing to lose"


A sad day

Salam. What a hectic and sad day today..I just came back from my kampung in Perak. My cousin's daughter passed away at 1 am this morning. Shoot terus ke sana after Subuh and sempat sampai before she was buried. Memang sedih cause she was just a child, almost 3 years old..sebaya dengan my eldest son, Haziq. The cause of death was Meningitis. Arwah sakit sekejap sahaja menurut cousin aku..1 day before, die demam and was taken to the clinic..then it worsened and she was admitted to the ICU at Hospital Ipoh. But her conditioned deteriorated and she passed away at 1 am. I only read the msg about her death after I woke up around 6.30am and straight away terus ke Perak. Inilah yg dinamakan qada' dan qadar..ketentuan Allah. Ajal dan maut di tangan Tuhan..semoga kita dimurahkan rezeki dan diberikan umur yang panjang oleh Allah utk menjadi insan yg soleh! Al-Fatihah to my cousin's daughter..Nurul Izzati Husna.


Monday, January 19, 2009

My Trading Style - KISS

Setiap forex trader ade teknik and style masing2 termasukla aku. Utk pengetahuan semua, aku start trading forex ni since hujung thn 2007, so thn ni masuk thn kedua aku la dlm trading forex ni. Semasa aku start awl2 dulu, mmg aku naif jugakla..masuk mcm2 website antaranye Babypips la, Forexfactory la dan macam2 lg...n aku igt lg ms awal2 dl aku download trading systems yg direkomenkan oleh forum2 forex ni and trade using these systems..heheh in the end, trading platform aku jd caca marba dengan segala macam trading systems yg colourful and memeningkan.

Tp sekarang ni, aku dah jumpa teknik yg simple n selesa dgn diri aku. Now, aku prefer utk gunakan "KISS" atau "Keep It Short and Simple" trading style. Aku akan gunakan Price Action (PA), Fibonacci dan Support and Resistance (S&R) bg menentukan setup aku. Aku hanya akan trade once aku nmpk PA yg memenuhi setup aku and Risk and Return (R&R) ratio yg acceptable, normally 1:2 meaning that I am willing to take a 20pips risk for a possible return of 40pips sebagai contoh.

Aku menetapkan sasaran utk mencapai sekurang2nya 50pips setiap hari. So dalam sebulan, aku mensasarkan 1,000pips. Kl standard account,ini akan bersamaan ngn USD1,000. Cukupla utk bayar loan umah, keter, setelkan bill n beli lampin and susu anak2...huhuhhu. Hopefully aku akan berjaya..Yakin boleh!!


My Piplosophy in Life - My way of achieving financial freedom

Assalamualaikum wbt. Pertama sekali aku nk cakap tk sangka yg aku ni ade blog sendiri..huhuh.selalu baca blog orang jek, tak terpk lak akan ade blog sendiri. Bukan ape, ade several reasons why aku ckp camtu..satu yerla, nak buat blog ni kena ade komitmen die, bukannyer hangat2 tahi ayam je..buat separuh jalan jer..insyaAllah aku akan cuba update this blog as frequent as i can.. and lagi satu reason, aku rasa aku ni tkde good writing skills kot..hahaha i'll let you guys be the judge as my blog evolves...

Piplosophy..aper tu?? mesti ade yg tertanya2 kan..kenapa aku chose word ni as my blog name..well bg sesaper yg main forex..mesti korang da tau kan..."pip" ni actually is the smallest value change in a currency pair exchange rate, contohnya pair EUR/USD current rate is 1.3154. Nombor yang plg belakang sekali tu la dipanggil pip. So blog "My Piplosophy in Life" ni adalah personal journal of my philosophy dlm trading in forex market. ceh ade philosophy ker?..hehe...anway, plan aku utk blog ni ialah utk merekodkan every trade yg aku buat together with the trading idea behind it. Tujuannye adalah supaya aku leh disiplinkan diri aku supaya aku trade based on a good setup (Part ni aku akan citer dlm posting aku yg seterusnya) and hopefully become a successful Full Time Trader (FTT).

Aku percaya forex ni akan memberikan aku financial freedom yg aku ingini and aku dah set target by umur aku 35 thn (7thn dr sekrng) aku akan berjaya mengecapinya. Semoga aku akan berjaya! Yakin boleh!

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