Friday, July 31, 2009

Visualize My Dreams


Dah lama rasanye sy tk post blog dlm BM, sll dlm english je, bukan ape utk bg analysis,byk term2 teknikal yg lebih sesuai utk ditulis dalam english..Tp utk post kali ni, sy bukan nak bercakap pasal forex tp sebaliknya impian sy. Dan utk mencapai impian sy ini, forex adalah salah satu sumber nya lah..huhuh.. Semua ade impian masing2 kan..mcm2 impian..ape impian sy? :)

Dalam salah satu blog yg sy selalu ikuti, ade diberitahu yg kita ni pasang impian hanyalah di dalam kepala..kita tak visualise impian tu..bila tk visualize tak jadi spesifik dan sukar utk kite mencapai impian tersebut. Lalu langkah sebaiknya adalah kite visualize kan impian tersebut dan kite letak impian yg sudah divisualize itu di tempat yg akan kite tgk hari2 agar memudahkan kita membuat tindakan bg mencapai impian tersebut.

So ape impian saya?

1) Impian pertama sy adalah utk memiliki sebuah rumah idaman type banglo dengan size keluasan >5000 sq ft. Dgn keluasan sebegini nanti, dapatla sy membina sebuah rumah yg luas demi keselesaan keluarga sy. Amacam..Lawa tak rumah impian sy ni?

2) Impian kedua sy adalah untuk memiliki sebuah kenderaan yg sesuai dgn jumlah ahli keluarga sy. Buat masa ni, br 5 org kami anak beranak..anak2 masih kecil lg so kereta sekarang ok kena fikir gak kl2 ade rezeki lg and bilangan kereta sedan dh tk praktikal. So impian sy adalah utk memiliki sebuah kereta MPV..Alphard looks nice inside tp kat luar kotak sgt buat masa sekarang sy prefer Toyota Wish..7 seater..sporty gak.

3) Impian yg terakhir ni, payah sikit la nak visualise..actually nak simpan duit penuhkan ASB me and me wife, set-up Education fund for the kids and then wat investment in properties and by the time we reach 35, boleh retire from our current job and boleh sara hidup through passive income and doing anything we like for the rest of our life!! Tp right now, kena la work hard and aim for all these. InsyaAllah!


Thursday, July 30, 2009

July Trading Performance


What a way to end the month! I managed to record another +235pips gain this week. This means for the month of July, I had recorded +724pips. I am going to set up a new column in my blog where I will record my performance every month. Hopefully by doing this, I can track and improve my performances as I go along..

Here's a screenshot of all my trades for the month. I placed a total of 16 trades for the whole month or roughly 4 trades every week. By trading less, I am actually minimizing my risk i.e placing wrong trades at the wrong time, and most importantly making more pips and the results have so far been encouraging.

I am not going to place anymore trade for the week, instead I am going to focus on the outlook for next month. Right now my heart is saying that the market should already take a correction by now but investors are still bullish and are supporting the rally in the stock markets..this is a liquidity-driven bull run!!

Let's watch and see....


Sunday, July 26, 2009

Outlook for the last week of July - Technical


OK here's the technical part:


Cable – Last closing price were actually just above the 20-day SMA of 1.6369 on the daily time frame. Meanwhile on the 1H and 4H time frame, momentum indicators are showing that the pair is already oversold.

If the price breaks below the 20-day SMA and fundamental data giving negative signal, I am going to take a sell position on this pair. My target would be the support level of 1.6238 (purple horizontal line) – around 150-200pips target.

Fibre – On the daily time frame, momentum indicators showing the price had already reached overbought level. If price breaks below 1.4200, strong support would be on 1.4140-1.4160 level. Price have been ranging between 1.38-1.43 levels for 2 months now and could possibly stay within the channel for some time if no strong news or data supporting breakout.

Aussie – Last week saw Aussie break the downtrend channel but 0.8200-0.8225 becoming the new resistance level. Stochastic and RSI are showing that price at current level are overbought. If corporate earnings and fundamental does not support the AUD, we can see Aussie dropping back into the channel.

Trade At Your Own Risk!!


Outlook for the last week of July - Fundamental

Salam Friends,

This week's outlook is quite as usual I am going to break it into 2 parts; Fundamental and Technical.


Over the past 2 weeks, strong earnings results by corporates have fired up the bullish sentiment in the stock markets. This in turn have given investors the confidence to invest in higher yielding currencies.

However, with most blue chip companies had already reported their earnings and even last Friday saw disappointing figures by Microsoft and American Express, there will be less reason to spur risk appetite further.

Going forward, fundamental data would take over as guidance to the movement in the currency market. One important data to come out this week that could provide the single most important clue to growth would be US 2Q09 GDP. It is due to be announced on Friday. Economists are expecting an improvement; -1.3% compared to -5.5% last quarter.

Other important data to come out in the week includes New Home Sales (Monday) – expected to be better than last mth, Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) – expect a decline, Core Durable Goods Order (Wed) - decline, Unemployment Claims (Thu) – rising.

Just by looking at US fundamental data coming out this week, it seems that recovery would be very slow and investors could potentially buy back USD this week provided that corporate earnings are also worse than expected.

Cable - The pair actually ended higher last week even as 2Q GDP preliminary reading showed a deeper than expected contraction of 0.8% against expectations of 0.3%. Economic growth on the year dropped by a 5.6% which was the most since record keeping began in 1955. Rally in the equity market helped spur the pound buying.

Data out this week would give further insight on the British economy; Realized Sales (Tue) – improving (-12 vs -17), net lending to individuals (0.9bil vs 0.6bil) and Mortgage Approvals (48k vs 43k) (Wed) – improving, Housing Price Index (Thu) – decline (0.3% vs 0.9%).

Cable could be trading on the sideways this week looking at the mixed outlook on the data.

Fibre – Recent strong data had provided support for Euro currency. The Euro Zone and German PMI indicators for manufacturing and service sector activity extended their recovery to hit 10-month highs. Covering a significant portion of the economy, these indicators are essentially leading indicators for broader growth. However, it is notable that they are all still under 50.0.

This week, important data from the Euro Zone is pretty light; German Consumer Climate (Monday) – stabil (2.9), German CPI (Wed) – decline (0.2% vs 0.4%), German Unemployment (Thu) – rise (44k vs 31k).

The single European currency looks bearish for this week, with German’s inflation turns to –ve the 1st time in 23 years. This put more pressure on ECB to cut down rates further. Right now they are resisting, preferring to provide money support to the region’s banks totalling about EUR442bil, while also buying bonds up to EUR60bil.

Aussie – Important data out this week; Leading index and quarterly business confidence (Mon), New Home Sales (Tue), Building Approvals (Wed) – improve, and Private sector credit (Thu) – improve.

If these positive expectation were to materialized, we could see the pair move higher this week, provided that results from corporate earnings also remain positive.


Friday, July 24, 2009

Just barely made it...

Salam Friends,

This week's trading has been really quite a something..Overall I placed 6 trades which resulted in -4pips for the whole week..hehehe

The first 2 trades were made early in the week, and it was too soon to made sell trades as stock markets were all still in bullish mood..and I realised the mistake and closed the trades for a total of 132pips loss!

Then followed by 2 trades the following day..and the day after..all resulting in 128pips gain

Hence my -4pips loss for the week..huhuhu

I noticed that I am willing to take more risks when the trades are moving against me than when I am in winning positions. I need to improve on this, be more discipline and take my Stop Loss more seriously! and also to take positions only when there is a clear cut risk-reward ratio and good candlestick formations.

Be patient and maintain your Money Management!


Saturday, July 18, 2009

Could the momentum sustained??

Salam Friends,

Last week’s rally in the equity markets saw safe haven currencies i.e USD and JPY weakened against higher yielding currencies. I’m not too confident that the momentum could be sustained for this week. We would need another strong earnings results from major companies plus positive economic data coming out this week.

Fundamental Analysis

Cable – Minutes from the July 9th’s BoE meeting will be out on Wednesday – recent reading of Q1 GDP was unexpectedly revised down to an annual rate of -4.9%, the lowest since recordkeeping began in 1956, from -4.1%.

The figure is at the bottom of the BOE’s previous range of forecasts, which has left speculation that the central bank will expand their quantitative easing (QE) program to fester growth. As a result, if there are signs within the minutes that this is occurring, the British pound could take a hit.

Fibre – Last week, Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment fell when economists had expected it to recover. It recorded 39.5 compared to the expected figure of 48.0. Industrial Production also produced abysmal result; rose 0.5% m/m, missing the predicted 1.5% figure. Still, Fibre traded higher during the week as stock markets rallied.

This week, European companies will start announcing their 2Q09 earnings. This could support futher rally for the Euro currency should the results were better than estimates.

Aussie – Important data from last week, NAB business confidence survey turned positive for the first time since December 2007. This week, minutes from the RBA policy meeting could provide hints on the outlook of the economy.

Credit Suisse overnight index swaps rose to 68 bps from 37 bps last week on expectations that RBA would raise rates over the next twelve months. Dailyfx thinks that inflation should fall to 1% before RBA could consider another rate cut.

Technical Analysis

Cable – This pair is quite volatile. I don’t see any clear signals for me to trade this pair. Will stay aside first and see what happened in the coming 1-2days before deciding on any trade for this pair.

Fibre – Last week’s bull run saw Fibre trading back within the range 1.38 – 1.43 level. This range has been in place since early June. Currently I am bias towards selling the Euro. Why? 1) Candlestick pattern on daily timeframe is showing a bearish engulfing pattern which is a trend reversal signal. 2) Momentum indicators on the 4H timeframe are showing that the recent rally is exhausted.

However trading against the current trend which is uptrend is quite a risk. Therefore I would wait for further confirmation on Monday before I make my decision to trade. Remember that positive earnings results is more than enough to support the momentum to the upside.

Aussie – I’m seeing a similar trade setup with Fibre. Currently the pair is trading within a downtrend channel. The risk is that it could possibly break the channel to the upside, supported by strong rally in the market as well as positive economic data.


Wednesday, July 15, 2009

My result so far for the week


Alhamdulillah so far for the week, I've made 201pips.

Both trades were sell orders. These were actually completed on Monday but I only had the chance to update the result today. I gained 200pips from cable but only 1pip for fibre. I actually manual close the fibre trade as I felt that on Monday night bull was gaining over the bear. And actually it turned out to be a correct decision as that night US market jumped more than 2%.

This bullish sentiment came after influential financial analyst, Meredith Whitney predicted that Goldman Sachs would beat their forecasted earnings and that Bank of America is of good value at its current price level. She was the one that had predicted Lehman to fall into bancrupty.

Since then stock markets are finding their feet and gaining momentum as corporate earnings continues to support the economic recovery story.

Right now, I'm staying aside first. Not quite sure what to do now. Most probably will wait for next week to post new trades.


Sunday, July 12, 2009

Forex Outlook for the week

Salam Friends,

Some minor changes to my blog. I have added several new information on candlestick patterns and stock market news. I have also added non-forex info such as prayer time and qiblat finder for my easy reference and I hope that you all will find it useful as well. If you guys have any comments or suggestion on the additional info or layout of my blog, please do so. I would really appreciate it!

Ok, now let’s go on and take a look at what’s the Fundamental and Technical outlook for this week:

Last week USD saw little movement against other major pairs such as EUR, GBP and AUD. Altough the first 3 days saw USD gain momentum as investors seek more reason to buy into the rally that is becoming exhaustive, on Thursday we saw that USD gave back some of its gain. And on Friday, market seems incline towards more USD bull.

In the G8 meeting, leaders agreed that there were early signs of economic stabilization and they are not ready yet to pull back their stimulus plan.

Cable – CPI is expected to decline to 1.8% y/y vs. 2.2% last mth while Claimant Count Change is expected to rise from a mth ago. Both shows the state of consumer in UK are still weak but is slowly recovering.

Fibre - Look out for the German ZEW Economic Sentiment and Eurozone Industrial Production figures. Both are expected to be announced on Tuesday and expected to show improvement. Failure to do so could potentially see the Fibre go south further.

Aussie – RBA maintained its rate at 3% but they did see a scope for further easing if conditions deteriorated which is a scenario that traders are starting to gravitate toward. Although Credit Suisse overnight index swaps are still pricing in 39 bps of a rate increase, it has actually fallen from 78 in early May and 58 a week ago.


Cable – I can see a chart pattern known as Three Line Strike Pattern - three long black candlesticks with consecutively lower closes followed by a long candlestick on the 4th day which closes above the open of the pattern’s 1st day. This indicates a continuation of downtrend.

I’ve already placed a short position near the top of the 4th candlestick and have since move my SL to a slight profit. Now let’s see if the journey to the south materializes.

– No clear indication to where the pair is heading to.

– Still trading within the downtrend channel (purple lines). Price could bounced back up supported by the trendline and indicators such as RSI,Stoch and Demarker are more inclined towards the uptrend. However Aussie could break that channel to the downside if carry trade unwinds.


Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Let's keep on pipping!!

Salam my friends,

My result so far for the week: +169pips

Profit resulted from early Monday sell-offs as investors becoming more risk-averse as the equity market trying to find its foothold amid the recent rally. Most probably that will come from better earnings results.

Right now I'm trying to look at other opportunities to enter the market. GBP seems weakening further and further. Its fundamental does not support a strong currency. Only today, both manufacturing production and IP recorded negative figures while concensus had forecasted a slight increase. This will put even more pressure on BoE to address the issue. Hmmmm..


Saturday, July 4, 2009

What I'm seeing this week...

Salam my friends,

Last week, currency markets were largely seen moving in the same sideway direction since early June. Volatility is still high with economic data giving mixed indication towards recovery. Economists kept on mentioning a new term called 'green shoots' - positive economic data that indicates that the economy is recovering, slowly.. Interesting to see this term picked up across the globe..they like to create catchy phrases which people could remember.. just like 'decoupling' some time ago..hehe

Ok, now let's see what is the fundamental and technical analysis for this week (I'll try to be short and concise this promise..hehe ):


This week, the key economic data would be the rate announcement by RBA and BOE. Both are expected to maintain their respective current rate. This follows the same decision by FOMC made during its last meeting. Analysts are expecting FOMC to maintain the rates at 0.25% at least by the end of the year. The same thing goes to other major countries.

I think markets has already pricing-in the rate decision but what is more important is to hear what RBA and BOE say about the future outlook of the economy.

There would be no major economic data from the US this week except for ISM non-manufacturing index which is forecasted to improve. Following the negative result from NFP on Thursday, any further negative news could potentially see the bear taking control.

However, strong earnings result from Alcoa who will kick-start the earning season as well as positive outcome from the G8 summit could prevent the slide.

In the Euro zone, key economic data would include UK manufacturing production, German IP and revised 1Q09 GDP. Any surprises from these results could have an impact to the market.

Based on the expected mixed data, I am thinking that the currency markets would remain sideways at best, and possibly heads down further as investors become more risk-averse if more bad economic data came out.


Cable - My bias would be towards sell. My LT upward TL has been broken and price could find its next support level at around 1.6220-1.6240. This represents 100pips return based on the closing price on Friday. If the price breaks that level, we could see potential retracement towards the 1.60 level( Fib 23.6) . Risk: +ve ISM Non-manufacturing index on Monday.

Fibre - I am not too sure about this pair. Although the upward TL has already been broken, the last daily candlestick formation on Friday is a 'hammer', which could indicate a reversal of trend, i.e price could went up. As the reversal signal is of low reliability, I will wait for the next price action to decide on my strategy.

Aussie - Same as Fibre, I don't see any clear signs. Again, the upward trendline is still intact (red line) but I can also see that it is trading in a downward channel (purple lines). If the price breaks below the trendline, we could potentially see the price reach 0.77-0.78 levels. My indicators are also pointing a decline.

P/s: This is a summary of what my analysis is telling me based on my readings. It is intended for my own record. Forex is a risky business so pls don't follow blindly! TAYOR!


Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Successful start to the month..


Here's my trading result for the week:+123 pips.

Alhamdulillah..I waited for the price to correct after it rallied on Monday and Tuesday..I thought that I've missed the boat but the price did retrace back to the LT trendline and I took the opportunity to enter my trades. I entered long position on cable and fibre. Today the price slowly climbed back and I managed to close my position with profits :)

As I am updating this blog, I am seeing that both pairs are still climbing against the USD. Ermm well, I don't see that as a misopportunity for me to gain more profit..there will be plenty more opportunities to come..Right now, I noticed that analysts on top FX sites are giving contrasting view on the pairs on the ST. On Medium Term and Long Term, they all agreed that USD would weakened further...but on shorter terms..still mixed view. So because of that, I closed my position early and practically I think this would be my only trades for the week. Heheh..

Hopefully next week, we can see some clarity on the FX outlook. It has been almost a month now that GBP/USD, EUR/USD and AUD/USD trading on the sideways. Personally, as this month would be earnings results season, I would think that USD would weakened further as companies reported better than expected results signalling that the economy is on its way towards recovery and investors go for more riskier assets. We will see....

Related Posts with Thumbnails

  © Blogger templates The Professional Template by 2008

Back to TOP