tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-70988650596056729982023-11-16T04:12:07.633-08:00My Piplosophy In LifeThis blog is where I record all my forex analysis,trades and results. From it, I hope to learn from any mistake and improve on my performance. This is the start where I hope to achieve my target - Financial Freedom!!!Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-71227563911769439802012-01-31T08:44:00.000-08:002012-01-31T08:48:51.463-08:00January trading resultThis month trading result: +276 pips..alhamdulillah.Syukur..Harap dapat teruskan konsistensi untuk bulan2 akan datang. Sy da setkan trading plan (nnt sy akan uploadkan di sini) untuk mencapai impian menjadi jutawan dan mengecap financial freedom dlm 3 thn akan datang, insyaAllah! Ya Allah, berikan ku kekuatan dan kesabaran..AminnnKhairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-54397511130333293252012-01-24T09:09:00.000-08:002012-01-24T09:11:04.526-08:00Slow-slow kayuh..Salam,<br /><br />Alhamdulillah got another 64 pips today! so happy..but still have a long way to go to become a Full Time Trader..so...slow2 kayuh! ganbatte!Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-13654589087781224492012-01-21T05:46:00.000-08:002012-01-21T05:48:25.806-08:00Latest so far in JanSalam,<br /><br />Last week I made another profit of USD74.60 which brings total for Jan to USD145.30 alhamdulillah..lepas ler nak bayar bil letrik n air..hihih..anyway will work harder to get more pips..insyaAllah..Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-12328769117351579362012-01-13T07:09:00.001-08:002012-01-13T07:15:02.971-08:00Year 2012..This will be the breakthrough yearWith new enthusiasm, alhamdulillah already made 70 pips for the 1st month of the year so far. I have set lofty, but manageable target this year. Hopefully I can reach it. InsyaAllah!Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-60895536162486408492011-12-14T06:34:00.000-08:002011-12-14T06:36:25.118-08:00Today's trading resultAlhamdulillah today pocketed a healthy +32pips gain. Need to be more consistent and discipline..huhu need to keep reminding myself about this time and again if I want to become a full time trader..insyaAllah!<br /><br />Today's gain: +32 pipsKhairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-57900522720793859482011-12-08T08:53:00.000-08:002011-12-08T08:56:34.923-08:00Blogwalking blog sendiri..huhuhWahh lama tul tk update blog aku nih..mmg da bersawang2 la..<br /><br />anyway tq to those yg still come to my blog ni n leave comments! <br /><br />I'm still trading FX albeit slowly..huhu..slowly building up my capital while at the same time mantapkan lagi my trading style n strategy..anyway pray for me ya'll!!<br /><br />Today's gain: +28pips Alhamdulillah!Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-84402154087605669092009-10-10T23:10:00.000-07:002009-10-10T23:47:00.569-07:00Currency Outlook - 11th October 2009Salam,
<br />
<br />It's been a while since my last weekly analysis. Hopefully I can continue to consistently update my blog with the weekly analysis and improve on my performance.
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<br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Fundamental Analysis </span></span>
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<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">USD</span>
<br />Greenback strengthened drastically on Friday while at the same time stock markets rose.
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<br />Usually, they would move on the opposite way round due to risk appetite with USD considered as a safe haven currency. So now what does it mean?
<br />Has the currency reached a bottom and decoupled as a carry trades’ currency?
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<br />I would think it would be too soon to say that USD has decoupled as a carry trade and safe haven currency. The reason the sudden surge on Friday apart from strong data i.e lesser unemployment claims and improving trade balance, was the strong denial from oil-producing nations as well as Japan, Russia about the rumor circulated earlier in the week that they plan to phase the USD out as the primary payment for oil deals.
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<br />This week, key data for USD: Retail sales and University of Michigan sentiment reports, CPI statistics and FOMC minutes will tune more directly into interest rate speculation.
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<br />An excerpt from <a href="http://www.fx360.com/commentary/kathy/2120/u-s-dollar-can-the-gains-be-sustained.aspx">www.fx360.com</a>:
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<br />“According to the latest CFTC report, forex positioning in the futures market is nearing extreme levels. For example, net short positions in the British pound rose against the dollar to the highest level ever while long positions in the euro rose to the highest since January 2008. Long positions in the Canadian dollar also doubled while long Australian dollar positions remained near 1 year highs.
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<br />The only currency that traders trimmed their positions in was USD/JPY, but even then short USD/JPY positions remained near 1 year highs.
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<br />This confirms our belief that the short dollar trade has become very overcrowded and because of that, the dollar is setting up for a rally. Next week’s economic reports could provide the necessary catalyst.”
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<br />Could we see a continuation of a strong USD next week?
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<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Euro</span>
<br />Signs of a potential double top?
<br />On the daily chart, the price is looking to make a double top but this depends on the performance in the coming week. If the USD continues its Friday’s performance into the coming week, there is an outside chance for this to happen.
<br />
<br />European Central Bank’s neutral stance during their recent monthly policy meeting could potentially creates some downside risks for the currency in the near term. ECB President Trichet seems to be somewhat concerned about the appreciation of the euro, as he said that “excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability.”
<br />
<br />Still, we must look at the fundamental which support the movement. Looking next week’s data, among the highly-impacted data includes:
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<br />On Tuesday, the German ZEW survey – a gauge of investor confidence – is projected to edge up to 58.8 for the month of October, the highest since April 2006, from 57.7.
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<br />On Wednesday, the August reading of Euro-zone industrial production is forecasted to rise by 1.2 percent, which would be the first increase in 3 months and the largest rise since January 2008
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<br />On Thursday, the final reading of Euro-zone CPI is anticipated to confirm that the annual rate fell to -0.3 percent in September from -0.2 percent.
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<br />On Friday, the Euro-zone trade balance is projected to narrow to 2.5 billion euros for the month of August, which would likely reflect a drop in exports but run counter to expectations for a rise in industrial output.
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<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Cable</span>
<br />Signs are still mixed for the UK economy. Industrial output tumbled 2.5 percent in the month of August—far worse than the consensus forecast for a 0.2 percent gain. The figures overshadowed bullish housing data and an effectively GBP-bullish Bank of England rate decision.
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<br />This week, highly-impact data includes inflation (Tues) and jobless claims (Wed). Initial concensus estimates are showing that inflation maybe is slowing down (exp. 1.3% y/y compared to 1.6%y/y last mth) while claims and unemployment rate are both expected to increase. With such weak data were to materialize, it would keep pressure on the BoE to maintain record-low interest rates and quantitative easing measures.
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<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Aussie</span>
<br />Australia became the 1st nation among the major countries to raise its interest rates. RBA decided to raise int. rate by 25bps to 3.25%.
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<br />Analysts expects that following the bullish statement from RBA, there’ll be another rate hike in the next meeting in Nov. and the benchmark rate could be as high as 5% in mid-2010.
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<br />The currency, to me, seems to be the best place to park money for very longer term horizon (3-6months).
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<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Kiwi</span>
<br />Kiwi has been strengthening relentlessly against USD this year, almost following the same pattern as Aussie. However, while RBA unexpectedly raised their rates last week (followed with strong economic data), RBNZ Governor Bollard has explicitly expressed his intentions to keep his nation’s benchmark lending rate unchanged at 2.50 percent until “late” next year. These are glaring discrepancies and they will not hold out forever.
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<br />Now, when it will finally correct? Or will it correct?
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<br />Looking at the economic data coming out this week: Retail sales, business activity and housing sales will offer a relatively complete picture of the economy.And only then we can see a clearer picture of the economy.
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<br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Technical Analysis</span></span> - Trade what you see..not what you want to see..
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<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Aussie</span>
<br /><meta equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cmilin%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:browserlevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]-->Possible retracement ahead should it fail to break the channel trendlines (colored light blue).
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<br />My preference would be for a possible buy when the price does make a correction as at current level, it would be risky for me to enter any positions.
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<br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/aussie-101009.gif"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 350px; height: 204px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/aussie-101009.gif" alt="" border="0" /></a>
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<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Cable</span>
<br />Currently is finding its support around the 1.5840 levels, which is almost near my 38.2 Fibo level. Should the price breach this level, I would place a sell order, with a target profit of around 100-200pips. Hopefully bear is still in this pair.
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<br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/cable-101009.gif"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 350px; height: 202px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/cable-101009.gif" alt="" border="0" /></a>
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<br />Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-80305134852121394082009-09-30T06:22:00.000-07:002009-09-30T06:43:35.384-07:00September Trading ResultSalam,<br /><br />It has been quite sometime since I really update my blog with my weekly analysis as well as trading results.<br /><br />Actually my last trade for the month was on the 16th which was about 2 weeks ago. This month's performance did not turn out as what I had expected. All my trades went completely the other way. Some of the trades were actually on the green at first but I did not or was slow to move my SL to breakeven. This is one of my weaknesses..something which needs to be improved.<br /><br />Hence for this month, I made a total<span style="font-weight: bold;"> <span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">loss of 626pips</span></span>. Quite a huge number..huhuh. Next month would be a real challenge for me to recover the losses before I can start thinking of withdrawing profits.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/SeptemberTradingResult-626pips.gif"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 352px; height: 144px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/SeptemberTradingResult-626pips.gif" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div><br />Here's a screenshot of all the trades for September, a total of 14 trades. Compared to the previous 2 months (which I gained positive results), total trades in each month averaged less than 10. This shows that I am chasing losing trades and adding to the losing trades, with the hope of recovering the earlier losses..which in the end resulted more losses...something which I also need to improved. Come on October, please give back my pips and more!!Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-80497064450470282452009-09-27T04:19:00.000-07:002009-09-27T04:24:24.850-07:00Salam LebaranSalam my friends,<br /><br />Lama jugak da tk update blog nih..huhuh..disebabkan mood puase and hari raya..selain trades yg tk menjadi bulan ni.<br /><br />Sekarang ni tgh mencari mood balik utk update blog ni. FYI sekarang ni sy tgh membaca 2 buah buku berkenaan dgn FOREX yg sy harap akan dapat membantu sy improve lg trading. Nanti kalau ade peluang, sy akan ceritakan psl buku2 tersebut.<br /><br />Okla..cukup setakat sini dl..just tknk biarkan blog ni bersawang..heheh<br /><br />Wait for my weekly update soon! Till then..Selamat Hari Raya Aidil Fitri dan Maaf Zahir dan Batin!!Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-81410365486779695982009-09-05T22:39:00.000-07:002009-09-05T23:27:20.383-07:00Just follow the market laaa...Salam friends,<br /><br />Last week was something for me to forget. But it is also for me to learn and correct my mistake. Let’s hope this week I can recover the losses from last week. Must continue to be disciplined and maintain my MM.<br /><br />Okay, for the week ahead we could see potential significant breakout of major pairs as liquidity is expected to return after a range-bound summer period.<br /><br />There are important news and data this week that could chart the movement and potential breakouts. To start with, there’ll be 3 rate announcement this week; RBNZ on Wed (9/9), BoE and BoC (Canada) on Thu (10/9).<br /><br />It seems that it is almost certain that they’ll all maintain their current int. rates. However, the market-moving news would be coming from their policy statement. If their statement sounded bearish just like BoE did last month when they announce additional quantitative easing, then the pair could take a plunge.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Fundamental Analysis</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Cable - Neutral</span><br />GBP still holding strong against the USD. What is surprising is that the economy is clearly far worst than other developed countries. Data has confirmed a deepening recession, policy groups have projected a significant lag in its recovery relative to its peers and ballooning asset purchases by the central bank means rate hikes are the furthest thing from their mind.<br /><br />The only reason can only be risk appetite. The pair can possibly break 1.66 level even when their current economy is at the current state. However, to me, this upward movement is seriously in need of new reason to support it. Perhaps further stock market rally and investors’ improving risk appetite.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Fibre - Neutral</span><br />Although early of the last week saw EUR weakened against USD, towards the end it recovered as investors seems not ready to break from the trading ranges.<br /><br />Should an equity market correction occur this month (which many economists had argued based on the ‘September Effect’), EUR could see some pullback but this scenario still remains an IF.<br /><br />This week’s data should not be that market moving. German’s IP is expected to post 1.6% rise vs -0.1% last mth. CPI, meanwhile is expected to be flat m/m.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Aussie – Neutral</span><br />AUD were the clear winner among other majors against the USD last week. The pair went up by 1% last week alone.<br /><br />The RBA held the benchmark interest rate at the 49-year low of 3.00% for the fifth consecutive month in September, and the central bank is widely anticipated to hold a neutral policy stance throughout the second-half of the year as the board forecasts economic activity to expand at an annual rate of 0.5% this year.<br /><br />Yet, they could possibly raised the interest rates as early as October this year according to data provided by Credit Suisse.<br /><br />Data for this week however could bring volatility to the market. Labor market expected to weakened further to 5.9% from 5.8% in July.On the other hand, retail spending is forecasted to rise 0.5% in July as the government commits more than AUD20bil in public projects to stimulate domestic demands.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Kiwi – Neutral</span><br />Key to the movement of this pair is the movement of the stock market especially the S&P 500 (SPX). Earlier last week we saw the pair dropped sharply when SPX plunged. However, the move shortlived and kiwi is now back to where it was at the start of last week.<br /><br />Apart from the rate announcement by RBNZ this week, SPX’s movement should be watched closely to determine which trade to place for this pair.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Technical Analysis</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Cable</span><br />Ermm this pair is interesting la..economy is not that nice but still looking at the technical, we could see it has already break the downward trend line (red) and potentially reached 1.66 levels.<br /><br />My indicators are also showing that this pair is at the oversold level. Hence this represent a good setup for buy trade.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/cable-060909.gif"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 351px; height: 226px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/cable-060909.gif" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />Fibre</span><br />Currently the price is within an ascending triangle. Fibre could possibly heads further north should it break the resistance line (red).<br /><br />Indicators are still at the mid range, meaning that the upward movement still have some legs.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/fibre-060909.gif"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 350px; height: 216px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/fibre-060909.gif" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />Aussie</span><br />On Friday, it shoot up like a rocket after beating the resistance 0.8459 which is the 61.8 Fibo level between 0.9850 and 0.6200.<br /><br />However, this sharp movement to the north means that RSI for longer TFs such as 1H,4H and daily are all at the overbought level. Hence to enter buy trades at current level would not be a wise decision coupled with uncertainty on the movement of the stock market.<br /><br />Waiting for some pullback before entering buy trade on this pair is safer should the trend still intact.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/aussie-060909.gif"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 350px; height: 224px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/aussie-060909.gif" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />Kiwi</span><br />It is approaching the 61.8 fibo level (refer to chart) which is about 70pips away. After that we could possibly see retracement as indicators giving an overbought signal. Current setups looks more likely that the price will went up instead of going down.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/kiwi-060909.gif"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 350px; height: 220px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/kiwi-060909.gif" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div>Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-17692315094351355062009-09-04T05:37:00.000-07:002009-09-04T05:51:08.635-07:00Not a sweet early September!Salam,<br /><br />This week I made a total loss of -195pips..ermm the first week in nearly 2 months I closed in the negative territory.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/040909-195pips.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 351px; height: 44px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/040909-195pips.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div><br />Stock markets has been holding up steadily and my projection of continuing correction in this week has been proven wrong. Higher yielding currencies such as GBP and EUR continues to held up gains against USD.<br /><br />What a start to the month. Now I must recoup my losses first before I can even think of improving August's performance. Sigh!Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-66667764948302147862009-08-31T08:54:00.000-07:002009-08-31T09:03:27.988-07:00August trading performanceSalam,<br /><br />For the month of August, I placed a total of 9 trades and made a profit of 319pips. Below is a summary of all the trades:<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/AugustTradingResult319pips-1.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 402px; height: 108px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/AugustTradingResult319pips-1.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div><br />Could have done better I think..but maybe because it is the first month I'm trading with a standard account and being extra cautious.<br /><br />Looking forward to September..where hopefully I could get more pips and some 'duit raya'..hehehKhairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-71334850735541734542009-08-26T07:30:00.000-07:002009-08-26T07:51:22.210-07:00My first withdrawal - RM700Salam,<br /><br />Remember that earlier this month, in one of my posts, I said that new month, new ball game. Well, this month is the 1st month I am trading using standard account. What this means is that for every 1pip, it is equivalent to USD1 for 0.1 standard lot.<br /><br />So far for this month, I've earned 387pips. I'd decided to withdraw 200pips which is equivalent to USD200 and retained the rest as I build up my capital. Through local bank, the money was transacted into my account this morning and as the current exchange rate set up by my forex broker at USD1=RM3.50, RM700 was credited into my bank account :) Alhamdulillah..<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/my1stwithdrawal.gif"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 384px; height: 80px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/my1stwithdrawal.gif" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div><br />Hopefully this would be the start of consistent performance from me and that I can withdraw regularly on a monthly basis. Let's hope that the month of Ramadhan would bring more rezeki for me and my family.Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-6687351395734950742009-08-22T23:03:00.000-07:002009-08-22T23:43:17.911-07:00Technical Analysis for last week of AugustSalam friends,<br /><br />Here's my technical analysis for this week:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Cable</span><br />If the trendline holds, we could potentially see cable moving up possibly to 1.6600-1.6620 as the nearest resistance level, provided that stock markets rally holds. However, if the stock market continue further correction and the trendline is broken, we could potential see cable dropped to 1.62 -1.63 levels.<br />My indicators (RSI and deMarker) are at the half way line while stochastic is at the oversold level.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/Cable-230809.gif"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 350px; height: 236px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/Cable-230809.gif" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Fibre</span><br />This pair could break the red line and go beyond 1.44 levels, with next strong resistance is 1.4687, which is the 61.8 Fibo level of 1.2501 and 1.6038.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/fibre-230809.gif"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 351px; height: 229px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/fibre-230809.gif" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Aussie</span><br />Similarly, Aussie could also reach the 61.8 Fibo level (0.6229-0.9850) at 0.8467, if supported by favorable risk sentiment trend in the week ahead.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/aussie-230809.gif"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 351px; height: 204px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/aussie-230809.gif" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Kiwi</span><br />Could also reach 61.8 fibo level at 0.6945 however my indicators are all showing that this pair is at the overbought level and poise for some corrections.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/kiwi-230809.gif"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 350px; height: 221px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/kiwi-230809.gif" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div>Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-25350238928241990852009-08-22T09:59:00.000-07:002009-08-22T10:09:42.943-07:00Analysis for the last week of AugustSalam,<br /><br />First of all, I would like to wish all my dear muslim friends - 'Selamat Berpuasa dan beribadat di sepanjang bulan Ramadhan'.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Review of last week</span><br />At the start of the week, we saw USD strengthened against other currencies as questions on recovery arose from weak US consumer confidence, driving up risk everse sentiment. However towards the end, stock markets recovered helped by several factors that included oil reserve shock in the US which spurred EUR due to its high correlation with crude oil. EUR also gained on the back of strong PMI data. German services PMI surged to a 16-month high of 54.1 while French manufacturing PMI hit a 15-month high of 50.2, signaling an expansion in activity after growth had contracted for more than a year.<br /><br />Finally, the strong rebound was also due to Bernanke’s remark at the end of the week that “the prospects for the return to growth appear good” – signaling growth is on its way. He also took pride in the fact that the Fed has spared no effort and that things would have been much worse if they did not act the way they did.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Fundamental Analysis</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Outlook for this week</span>: While we have seen investor sentiment steadily rise over the months, with the S&P 500 just recently hit new highs for the year; there are signs that optimism is flagging. Taking a look at the volume data that accompanies the steady trend in equities, there is a clearly diminishing trend in conviction behind this move. I would go for sell orders on corrections opportunities this week. Stock markets needs to feed on positives news to support its rally between now and the 4Q09 where we’ll see investors coming in (after summer holiday) with more liquidity.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Cable – slightly bearish</span><br />The primary driver for cable this week would be risk sentiment instead of economic data due out this week. Revised 2Q GDP is due out on Wed – barring any meaningful shock revision, the impact on cable is expected to be alredy priced in. CBI Realized Sales (Thu) is expected to report a better figure although it would be still negative (-11) – this data is a leading indicator for consumer spending. A lower figure indicates low level of sales volume.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Fibre – bullish</span><br />After impressive results from PMI data last week, our attention would be on German’s Ifo business climate data out on Wed – it’s a leading indicator of business condition such as spending, employment and investment, where 7,000 companes were surveyed for the data. Economists are expecting an improvement to 89.1 vs 87.3 last month.<br /><br />On Thursday, the German GfK survey of consumer confidence is projected to rise to a more than 1-year high of 3.6 in September from 3.5 and on Friday, Euro-zone economic confidence is anticipated to increase to a 10-month high of 78.0 in August from 76.0. Overall, a steady stream of positive news could be the impetus to drive fibre to fresh 2009 highs.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Aussie – bullish</span><br />Key macro data for AUD this week includes Construction Work Done (Tue) – expected -2.7% vs -3.7% last mth and Private Capital Expenditure (Wed) – improvement to -4.7% vs -8.9% last mth. Both data are important as it indicates the health of the economic and if the actual data came out as expected, we could see Aussie making new highs for 2009.Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-81753853162162449232009-08-18T05:56:00.000-07:002009-08-18T06:17:41.062-07:00It's just a healthy consolidationSalam,<br /><br />What did I tell ya'? Market is now on consolidation mode. After last Friday's University of Michigan's consumer confidence data reported dismal result, market took cue and come yesterday, we saw market took a huge tumble after four weeks of rally (supported by earnings season).<br /><br />I don't know if there is anyone following my blog, but this week if you guys noticed I didn't update my research for the week due to time constraint - however my view still remains the same from the previous week - looking at selling opportunities as the market corrects.<br /><br />Hence, yesterday I placed 2 sell orders on kiwi and cable and managed to took +201pips in a matters of hours as the stock markets plunges worldwide and investors became risk averse, dumping riskier,higher-yielding currencies.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/170809201pips.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 354px; height: 27px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/170809201pips.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div><br />Looking ahead for the rest of the week, I will look for further opportunities to short the major currencies against USD as I firmly believe that we are in a consolidation period and 2% drop (on average) in the stock market on Monday is just a start to a healthy correction.Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-73330542725909495412009-08-12T05:33:00.000-07:002009-08-12T06:04:24.957-07:00Correction is underwaySalam,<br /><br />Today I managed to secure another +94pips. Kiwi gave me 101pips gain but I gave back 7pips thru cable..<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/12080994pips.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 348px; height: 32px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/12080994pips.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div><br />I think I entered the sell order for cable late, after it had fell more than 200pips on Monday when it had break the UTL support. The price ranges around the 1.6440-1.6500 level yesterday, suggesting bearish might have exhausted..before I decided to manually close the trade..<br /><br />It turns out that the bear has some fuel in the tank (<span style="font-style: italic;">boleh ker ckp camni? belasah jer la..hehe</span>) If I had waited longer, I could gain as much as 80pips. Well, need to improve on my confidence level as well as my patience..huhuKhairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-26680071838278227232009-08-08T23:38:00.000-07:002009-08-09T04:53:31.529-07:00Potential Correction Ahead?Salam,<br /><br />Last Friday, we saw volatile movement in the currency market after the announcement of Non-farm Payroll (NFP). The data was actually better than analyst estimated. -247k against -320k. Normally what we would expected is USD would take a hit and other currencies benefited due to risk appetite sentiment. And that’s what happened briefly, Cable, Fibre all went up by 60-100pips, but before u knew it, the pairs went down crashing by more than 100-200pips. Luckily, I didn’t trade last Friday because I don’t like the volatility caused by NFP.<br /><br />Could it be a sign that positive US fundamental data now would trigger a dollar rally instead of further risk appetite? This is because US is expected to recover 1st from the current economic turmoil than UK, Japan and the Euro Zone (which will be confirmed with this week’s GDP numbers). But such expectation is too early to tell and better yet, difficult to muster, as USD is considered as the world’s reserve currency and would be hard to shake off its safe haven currency tag.<br /><br />Looking ahead to this week, here’s my fundamental analysis based on my favorite pairs:<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Fundamental Analysis</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Cable</span> – The decision by BoE to increase Quantitative Easing further by GBP50bil to GBP175bil caused a sharp fall in the pair last week. This just further proves that the UK economy is recovering slower than the US.<br /><br />Recent UK economic data has broadly shown relative improvement in domestic activity and said trend will be put to the test by upcoming Jobless Claims results. Consensus forecasts call for a 28.0k increase in Jobless insurance claims and a marginal increase to the national jobless rate at 4.9 percent. The result would represent the worst unemployment since 1997, but as recent market reaction to US Nonfarm Payrolls data clearly shows, financial markets are mostly interested in the rate of deterioration.<br /><br />Short-term Cable momentum points to further losses, but it will be important to monitor financial market follow-through and key UK and US economic event risk.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Fibre</span> – Sharp sell-off on Friday from macro perspective, shows that US is more bullish with their market and interest rate increment may be just down the line sooner rather than later. This is a sharp contrast to the neutral tone from ECB’s announcement last week.<br /><br />Fibre could continue to fell this week if the 2Q GDP fell more than expected. It’s forecasted to show a 0.5% decline in 2Q compared to -2.5% in 1Q.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Aussie</span> – Last week, the pair ended higher than previous week, helped by a bullish tone set by RBA, boosting growth forecasts and pointing an improved economic activity. They indicated that current rate is suffice to boost the economy and even said that they might increase rate later.<br /><br />Currently, commitment of traders on the pair is at the extreme bullish. It’s hard to say whether the top has been reached but any negative data coming out this week could potentially see some corrections.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Kiwi</span> – I am adding kiwi (NZD/USD) for this week’s analysis as I noticed that there’s some potential trading for this week based on technical. On the fundamental side, with stock market could potentially correct this week, we might see some unwind in the risk appetite for this pair.<br /><br />Futhermore, retail sales will be announced on Thursday and it is expected to decline to -0.3% m/m compared to the previous mth’s 0.8% increase. If the data came out as expected, it shows that consumer spending which is a reflection of the overall economic activity, is still weak and does not bodes well for the pair.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Technical Analysis</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Cable</span> – Looking at the daily chart, Cable has almost reached the Upward trend line (UTL) for its support. At this level I am not looking to place any trade after considering last week’s huge swings, daily average movement now has surge to 214pips and there is no worthy risk/reward potential to take.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/Cable-090809.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 350px; height: 223px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/Cable-090809.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br /></div><span style="font-weight: bold;">Fibre</span> – Similarly, this pair has also reached it support at the UTL, which is also within an upward channel. Again, at this level, I am not taking any trade on this pair. However if it does break through the support level, I could possibly reconsider taking a short position.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/Fibre-090809.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 351px; height: 214px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/Fibre-090809.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br /></div><span style="font-weight: bold;">Aussie</span> – The pair could potentially have reached a top, and possibly completing a wave 5 of Elliot Wave, which in theory, this would follow with correction wave. I could take a calculated risk and place a sell trade at current price, with a target pips of around 100-150pips for a risk/reward ratio of 1:1.2 (23.6 fib level) or 1.5 (38.2 fib level).<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/Aussie-090809.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 357px; height: 206px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/Aussie-090809.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Kiwi</span> – The last candlestick on Daily TF is forming a <a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs42.asp">shooting star</a>. This is a sign of reversal. While in terms of Elliot Wave, we could be seeing the starting of a consolidation wave (a) – refer to chart. If these analysis holds true, we could see correction in this pair. I would take a sell trade on this pair, with a SL of 50-60 pips and a minimum of 100pips profit target, until it reached the UTL.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/Kiwi-090809.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 350px; height: 268px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/Kiwi-090809.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div>Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-1902440293513321942009-08-07T05:21:00.000-07:002009-08-07T05:45:00.050-07:00Nice and slow start to the monthSalam Friends,<br /><br />This month went off with a good start. I bagged +92 pips, shorting GBP against the USD, as the stock markets finally consolidates this week.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/07080992pips.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 20px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/07080992pips.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div><br />Could have added more pips but since I am working within a new money management condition, my SL is pretty tight..hence my low return this week..still Alhamdulillah, positive returns that's what counts.<br /><br />I would also like to take the opportunity to congratulate my friend who had just won his 1st property auction today! Finally after several attempts, you won! :) This is a big step for him to become a successful property investor and achieve financial freedom. Just imagine from 1 property you can earn RM200-300 positive cashflow each month. What if you have 10 or 20 properties? It would provide you with a stream of passive income while at the same time maintaining your current work. Imagine buying new car or a new house using other people's money, isn't that great!! Wowowww..<br /><br />Congrats bro on your winning!!..Now u can join the TT session! Hehehe..Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-77829350525533602622009-08-03T01:41:00.000-07:002009-08-03T01:49:19.668-07:00A new month, a new ball game – bring it on!Salam friends,<br /><br />What a month it was last month. Now let’s look to the future and target more pips..huhuh<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Fundamental</span><br /><br />Currently, higher-yielding currencies are buoyed by the rally in the stock market. This gave confidence to investors to invest in riskier assets as can be seen by the Commitment of Traders (pls refer to fx websites and just type the phrase in its search tool) whereby net shorts of USD has been at the extremes. It is a matter of ‘when’ rather than ‘if’ the USD will post a correction. And it would take a single (given the significance) or strings of bad economic data like the ones that are coming out this week to see investors unloaded their short position of the Uncle Sam’s currency.<br /><br />Having said that, my bias for the week is to follow the market but cautiously; i.e by putting tight SL for fear of any strong reversal. It could be volatile this week looking at hordes of important data coming out.<br /><br />The most important and anticipated data is coming out this Friday, the non other than the Non Farm Payroll (NFP). As usual, economist are targeting good numbers but what we did learn from last time? Expect the unexpected. Last month, the number came out worst by more than 107k than estimated.<br /><br />Last week, advanced 2Q GDP result shows that the economy contracted less than expected. However, the revised 1Q GDP shows that the US economy suffered its worst q/q performance in 27 years. Personal consumption is still heavily subdued, so I am personally think that current strong rally in both the stock and currency markets are overly done and some correction looms.<br /><br />Other important data coming out: ISM Manufacturing PMI (improve 46.4 vs. last mth’s 44.8), Pending Home Sales m/m (0.6% vs 0.1%), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (48.1 vs 47)<br /><br />Sorry but this week I was pretty tight on time so I didn't update views on each of my favorite currencies.Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-88687775633492684842009-07-31T07:04:00.000-07:002009-07-31T07:43:31.734-07:00Visualize My DreamsSalam,<br /><br />Dah lama rasanye sy tk post blog dlm BM, sll dlm english je, bukan ape utk bg analysis,byk term2 teknikal yg lebih sesuai utk ditulis dalam english..Tp utk post kali ni, sy bukan nak bercakap pasal forex tp sebaliknya impian sy. Dan utk mencapai impian sy ini, forex adalah salah satu sumber nya lah..huhuh.. Semua ade impian masing2 kan..mcm2 impian..ape impian sy? :)<br /><br />Dalam salah satu blog yg sy selalu ikuti, ade diberitahu yg kita ni pasang impian hanyalah di dalam kepala..kita tak visualise impian tu..bila tk visualize tak jadi spesifik dan sukar utk kite mencapai impian tersebut. Lalu langkah sebaiknya adalah kite visualize kan impian tersebut dan kite letak impian yg sudah divisualize itu di tempat yg akan kite tgk hari2 agar memudahkan kita membuat tindakan bg mencapai impian tersebut.<br /><br />So ape impian saya?<br /><br />1) Impian pertama sy adalah utk memiliki sebuah rumah idaman type banglo dengan size keluasan >5000 sq ft. Dgn keluasan sebegini nanti, dapatla sy membina sebuah rumah yg luas demi keselesaan keluarga sy. Amacam..Lawa tak rumah impian sy ni?<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/mydreamhouse.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 401px; height: 247px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/mydreamhouse.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div><br />2) Impian kedua sy adalah untuk memiliki sebuah kenderaan yg sesuai dgn jumlah ahli keluarga sy. Buat masa ni, br 5 org kami anak beranak..anak2 masih kecil lg so kereta sekarang ok la..tp kena fikir gak kl2 ade rezeki lg and bilangan bertambah..so kereta sedan dh tk praktikal. So impian sy adalah utk memiliki sebuah kereta MPV..Alphard looks nice inside tp kat luar kotak sgt la..so buat masa sekarang sy prefer Toyota Wish..7 seater..sporty gak.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/mydreamcar.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/mydreamcar.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div><br />3) Impian yg terakhir ni, payah sikit la nak visualise..actually nak simpan duit penuhkan ASB me and me wife, set-up Education fund for the kids and then wat investment in properties and gold..target by the time we reach 35, boleh retire from our current job and boleh sara hidup through passive income and doing anything we like for the rest of our life!! Tp right now, kena la work hard and aim for all these. InsyaAllah!Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-68016070717250346892009-07-30T06:10:00.001-07:002009-07-30T06:45:46.961-07:00July Trading PerformanceSalam,<br /><br />What a way to end the month! I managed to record another +235pips gain this week. This means for the month of July, I had recorded +724pips. I am going to set up a new column in my blog where I will record my performance every month. Hopefully by doing this, I can track and improve my performances as I go along..<br /><br />Here's a screenshot of all my trades for the month. I placed a total of 16 trades for the whole month or roughly 4 trades every week. By trading less, I am actually minimizing my risk i.e placing wrong trades at the wrong time, and most importantly making more pips and the results have so far been encouraging.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/JulyTradingResult724pips.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 351px; height: 144px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/JulyTradingResult724pips.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div><br />I am not going to place anymore trade for the week, instead I am going to focus on the outlook for next month. Right now my heart is saying that the market should already take a correction by now but investors are still bullish and are supporting the rally in the stock markets..this is a liquidity-driven bull run!!<br /><br />Let's watch and see....Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-26740519486813688852009-07-26T08:02:00.000-07:002009-07-26T08:16:16.265-07:00Outlook for the last week of July - TechnicalSalam,<br /><br />OK here's the technical part:<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Technical</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Cable</span> – Last closing price were actually just above the 20-day SMA of 1.6369 on the daily time frame. Meanwhile on the 1H and 4H time frame, momentum indicators are showing that the pair is already oversold.<br /><br />If the price breaks below the 20-day SMA and fundamental data giving negative signal, I am going to take a sell position on this pair. My target would be the support level of 1.6238 (purple horizontal line) – around 150-200pips target.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/Cable-260709.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 351px; height: 225px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/Cable-260709.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /></div><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Fibre</span> – On the daily time frame, momentum indicators showing the price had already reached overbought level. If price breaks below 1.4200, strong support would be on 1.4140-1.4160 level. Price have been ranging between 1.38-1.43 levels for 2 months now and could possibly stay within the channel for some time if no strong news or data supporting breakout.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/Fibre-260709.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 350px; height: 234px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/Fibre-260709.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br /></div><span style="font-weight: bold;">Aussie</span> – Last week saw Aussie break the downtrend channel but 0.8200-0.8225 becoming the new resistance level. Stochastic and RSI are showing that price at current level are overbought. If corporate earnings and fundamental does not support the AUD, we can see Aussie dropping back into the channel.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/Aussie-260709.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 351px; height: 229px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/Aussie-260709.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">T.A.Y.O.R</span></span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Trade At Your Own Risk!!</span><br /></div></div>Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-28751688083318937032009-07-26T07:13:00.000-07:002009-07-26T07:30:13.184-07:00Outlook for the last week of July - FundamentalSalam Friends,<br /><br />This week's outlook is quite long..so as usual I am going to break it into 2 parts; Fundamental and Technical.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Fundamental<br /></span></span><br />Over the past 2 weeks, strong earnings results by corporates have fired up the bullish sentiment in the stock markets. This in turn have given investors the confidence to invest in higher yielding currencies.<br /><br />However, with most blue chip companies had already reported their earnings and even last Friday saw disappointing figures by Microsoft and American Express, there will be less reason to spur risk appetite further.<br /><br />Going forward, fundamental data would take over as guidance to the movement in the currency market. One important data to come out this week that could provide the single most important clue to growth would be US 2Q09 GDP. It is due to be announced on Friday. Economists are expecting an improvement; -1.3% compared to -5.5% last quarter.<br /><br />Other important data to come out in the week includes New Home Sales (Monday) – expected to be better than last mth, Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) – expect a decline, Core Durable Goods Order (Wed) - decline, Unemployment Claims (Thu) – rising.<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">Just by looking at US fundamental data coming out this week, it seems that recovery would be very slow and investors could potentially buy back USD this week provided that corporate earnings are also worse than expected.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Cable</span> - The pair actually ended higher last week even as 2Q GDP preliminary reading showed a deeper than expected contraction of 0.8% against expectations of 0.3%. Economic growth on the year dropped by a 5.6% which was the most since record keeping began in 1955. Rally in the equity market helped spur the pound buying.<br /><br />Data out this week would give further insight on the British economy; Realized Sales (Tue) – improving (-12 vs -17), net lending to individuals (0.9bil vs 0.6bil) and Mortgage Approvals (48k vs 43k) (Wed) – improving, Housing Price Index (Thu) – decline (0.3% vs 0.9%).<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">Cable could be trading on the sideways this week looking at the mixed outlook on the data.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Fibre</span> – Recent strong data had provided support for Euro currency. The Euro Zone and German PMI indicators for manufacturing and service sector activity extended their recovery to hit 10-month highs. Covering a significant portion of the economy, these indicators are essentially leading indicators for broader growth. However, it is notable that they are all still under 50.0.<br /><br />This week, important data from the Euro Zone is pretty light; German Consumer Climate (Monday) – stabil (2.9), German CPI (Wed) – decline (0.2% vs 0.4%), German Unemployment (Thu) – rise (44k vs 31k).<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">The single European currency looks bearish for this week</span>, with German’s inflation turns to –ve the 1st time in 23 years. This put more pressure on ECB to cut down rates further. Right now they are resisting, preferring to provide money support to the region’s banks totalling about EUR442bil, while also buying bonds up to EUR60bil.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Aussie</span> – Important data out this week; Leading index and quarterly business confidence (Mon), New Home Sales (Tue), Building Approvals (Wed) – improve, and Private sector credit (Thu) – improve.<br /><br />If these positive expectation were to materialized, <span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">we could see the pair move higher this week</span>, provided that results from corporate earnings also remain positive.Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7098865059605672998.post-1621381805173664732009-07-24T05:55:00.000-07:002009-07-24T06:19:23.162-07:00Just barely made it...Salam Friends,<br /><br />This week's trading has been really quite a something..Overall I placed 6 trades which resulted in -4pips for the whole week..hehehe<br /><br />The first 2 trades were made early in the week, and it was too soon to made sell trades as stock markets were all still in bullish mood..and I realised the mistake and closed the trades for a total of 132pips loss!<br /><br />Then followed by 2 trades the following day..and the day after..all resulting in 128pips gain<br /><br />Hence my -4pips loss for the week..huhuhu<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/240709-4pips.jpg"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 351px; height: 51px;" src="http://i467.photobucket.com/albums/rr39/amilin14/240709-4pips.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br />I noticed that I am willing to take more risks when the trades are moving against me than when I am in winning positions. I need to improve on this, be more discipline and take my Stop Loss more seriously! and also to take positions only when there is a clear cut risk-reward ratio and good candlestick formations.<br /><br />Be patient and maintain your Money Management!Khairul Amilinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14726961127398519202noreply@blogger.com0