Wednesday, September 30, 2009

September Trading Result


It has been quite sometime since I really update my blog with my weekly analysis as well as trading results.

Actually my last trade for the month was on the 16th which was about 2 weeks ago. This month's performance did not turn out as what I had expected. All my trades went completely the other way. Some of the trades were actually on the green at first but I did not or was slow to move my SL to breakeven. This is one of my weaknesses..something which needs to be improved.

Hence for this month, I made a total loss of 626pips. Quite a huge number..huhuh. Next month would be a real challenge for me to recover the losses before I can start thinking of withdrawing profits.

Here's a screenshot of all the trades for September, a total of 14 trades. Compared to the previous 2 months (which I gained positive results), total trades in each month averaged less than 10. This shows that I am chasing losing trades and adding to the losing trades, with the hope of recovering the earlier losses..which in the end resulted more losses...something which I also need to improved. Come on October, please give back my pips and more!!


Sunday, September 27, 2009

Salam Lebaran

Salam my friends,

Lama jugak da tk update blog nih..huhuh..disebabkan mood puase and hari raya..selain trades yg tk menjadi bulan ni.

Sekarang ni tgh mencari mood balik utk update blog ni. FYI sekarang ni sy tgh membaca 2 buah buku berkenaan dgn FOREX yg sy harap akan dapat membantu sy improve lg trading. Nanti kalau ade peluang, sy akan ceritakan psl buku2 tersebut.

Okla..cukup setakat sini dl..just tknk biarkan blog ni bersawang..heheh

Wait for my weekly update soon! Till then..Selamat Hari Raya Aidil Fitri dan Maaf Zahir dan Batin!!


Saturday, September 5, 2009

Just follow the market laaa...

Salam friends,

Last week was something for me to forget. But it is also for me to learn and correct my mistake. Let’s hope this week I can recover the losses from last week. Must continue to be disciplined and maintain my MM.

Okay, for the week ahead we could see potential significant breakout of major pairs as liquidity is expected to return after a range-bound summer period.

There are important news and data this week that could chart the movement and potential breakouts. To start with, there’ll be 3 rate announcement this week; RBNZ on Wed (9/9), BoE and BoC (Canada) on Thu (10/9).

It seems that it is almost certain that they’ll all maintain their current int. rates. However, the market-moving news would be coming from their policy statement. If their statement sounded bearish just like BoE did last month when they announce additional quantitative easing, then the pair could take a plunge.

Fundamental Analysis

Cable - Neutral
GBP still holding strong against the USD. What is surprising is that the economy is clearly far worst than other developed countries. Data has confirmed a deepening recession, policy groups have projected a significant lag in its recovery relative to its peers and ballooning asset purchases by the central bank means rate hikes are the furthest thing from their mind.

The only reason can only be risk appetite. The pair can possibly break 1.66 level even when their current economy is at the current state. However, to me, this upward movement is seriously in need of new reason to support it. Perhaps further stock market rally and investors’ improving risk appetite.

Fibre - Neutral
Although early of the last week saw EUR weakened against USD, towards the end it recovered as investors seems not ready to break from the trading ranges.

Should an equity market correction occur this month (which many economists had argued based on the ‘September Effect’), EUR could see some pullback but this scenario still remains an IF.

This week’s data should not be that market moving. German’s IP is expected to post 1.6% rise vs -0.1% last mth. CPI, meanwhile is expected to be flat m/m.

Aussie – Neutral
AUD were the clear winner among other majors against the USD last week. The pair went up by 1% last week alone.

The RBA held the benchmark interest rate at the 49-year low of 3.00% for the fifth consecutive month in September, and the central bank is widely anticipated to hold a neutral policy stance throughout the second-half of the year as the board forecasts economic activity to expand at an annual rate of 0.5% this year.

Yet, they could possibly raised the interest rates as early as October this year according to data provided by Credit Suisse.

Data for this week however could bring volatility to the market. Labor market expected to weakened further to 5.9% from 5.8% in July.On the other hand, retail spending is forecasted to rise 0.5% in July as the government commits more than AUD20bil in public projects to stimulate domestic demands.

Kiwi – Neutral
Key to the movement of this pair is the movement of the stock market especially the S&P 500 (SPX). Earlier last week we saw the pair dropped sharply when SPX plunged. However, the move shortlived and kiwi is now back to where it was at the start of last week.

Apart from the rate announcement by RBNZ this week, SPX’s movement should be watched closely to determine which trade to place for this pair.

Technical Analysis

Ermm this pair is interesting la..economy is not that nice but still looking at the technical, we could see it has already break the downward trend line (red) and potentially reached 1.66 levels.

My indicators are also showing that this pair is at the oversold level. Hence this represent a good setup for buy trade.


Currently the price is within an ascending triangle. Fibre could possibly heads further north should it break the resistance line (red).

Indicators are still at the mid range, meaning that the upward movement still have some legs.


On Friday, it shoot up like a rocket after beating the resistance 0.8459 which is the 61.8 Fibo level between 0.9850 and 0.6200.

However, this sharp movement to the north means that RSI for longer TFs such as 1H,4H and daily are all at the overbought level. Hence to enter buy trades at current level would not be a wise decision coupled with uncertainty on the movement of the stock market.

Waiting for some pullback before entering buy trade on this pair is safer should the trend still intact.


It is approaching the 61.8 fibo level (refer to chart) which is about 70pips away. After that we could possibly see retracement as indicators giving an overbought signal. Current setups looks more likely that the price will went up instead of going down.


Friday, September 4, 2009

Not a sweet early September!


This week I made a total loss of -195pips..ermm the first week in nearly 2 months I closed in the negative territory.

Stock markets has been holding up steadily and my projection of continuing correction in this week has been proven wrong. Higher yielding currencies such as GBP and EUR continues to held up gains against USD.

What a start to the month. Now I must recoup my losses first before I can even think of improving August's performance. Sigh!

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